Jude's Real Estate Rumblings

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Pending home sales moved higher in April

An article from MSNBC.com, reports that according to the National Association of Realtors, pending home sales unexpectedly increased in April to the highest reading since October, but they remain more than 13% below a year ago.  The group's seasonally adjusted index of pending sales for existing homes rose to 88.2 from a March reading of 83.0, the lowest since the index was started in 2001.  In April 2007, the index stood at 101.5.  NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said, “Bargain hunters have entered the market en masse.  Sharp price reductions are leading to a quicker discovery of price equilibrium points.”  Yun forecasts that the median price of an existing home will drop 8.4% in the first half of the year before stabilizing.  He also predicts in 2009, prices will rise 4.4% to $213,900.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25059206/


Lakewood sure has arrived

An article from The Denver Post, reports that Lakewood officials are willing to pay an estimated $2.8 million for what they call "betterments" to RTD's standard light-rail designs.  Lakewood sees the Wadsworth station, with a crystalline canopy across the platform, as a statement that the state's fourth-largest city has arrived.  Councilman Ed Peterson said, "It is very, very innovative.  It is a signature piece. . . . It gives a sense of place."  According to city officials, the improvements are worth the investment as a focus for economic development.  Lakewood City Manager Mike Rock said, "We think this is smart business all the way around.  This simply recognizes that this is a long-term investment on the part of the community and decisions we make today will live for the next 50 to 100 years."
http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_9534737


Daily Rate Lock Advisory

 
 



This week brings us the release of five pieces of data for the markets to digest. The most important news will be posted late in the week, so we may see the most movement in rates during those days. The first part of the week will likely be driven by stock market gains or losses.

The week's first but least important data is April's Goods and Services Trade Balance report Tuesday morning. This report gives us the size of the U.S. trade deficit and will be released at 8:30 AM. It isn't likely to cause much movement in the markets or mortgage rates, but nevertheless forecasts are expecting to see a $59.5 billion deficit.

Late Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book. This data details economic conditions throughout the U.S. by region. It is relied upon heavily by the Federal Reserve during FOMC meetings when determining monetary policy. If it shows slowing economic activity, the bond market may thrive and mortgage rates could drop shortly after the 2:00 PM ET release. If it reveals signs of inflation growing, we could see mortgage rates revise higher Wednesday afternoon.

May's Retail Sales data will be released Thursday morning. This report measures consumer spending, which is important to the bond market because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Analysts are expecting to see that sales rose 0.6% last month. A smaller than expected rise in sales would be good news for the bond market and could lead to lower mortgage rates Thursday.

There are two reports scheduled for release Friday. The first is May's Consumer Price Index (CPI) that measures inflationary pressures at the consumer level of the economy. This is one of the most important reports we see each month. There are two readings of this index, the overall and the core data. The core data is considered to be the more important of the two because it excludes more volatile food an d energy prices. A large increase could raise fear in the bond market that inflation is a threat. This would not be good news for bond prices or mortgage rates since inflation erodes the value of a bond's future fixed interest payments. Rising inflation causes investors to sell bonds, driving prices lower and mortgage rates higher. Analysts are expecting to see an increase of 0.5% in the overall index and a 0.2% rise in the core data.

The last report of the week is June's preliminary reading to the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment. This index measures consumer willingness to spend and usually has a moderate impact on the financial markets. It is expected to show a reading of 57.5. A larger then expected decline in consumer confidence would be considered good news for bonds, however, CPI report is much more likely to have a bigger impact on the markets than this one will.

Overall, it is going to be a fairly busy week for the financial markets. We will likely see the biggest changes to mortgage rates the latter part of the week. I feel that Friday will be the single most important day of the week but Thursday also is likely to bring significant movement in rates. Accordingly, this would be a very good week to maintain fairly constant contact with your mortgage professional.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2008

Tax Credit Would Get Buyers Off Fence

An article from Realtor Magazine Online, reports that the National Association of Realtors told Congress last week a temporary tax credit would be the best incentive to move hesitant home buyers into the market.  According to the NAR, the tactic has been successful before; A 1975 temporary tax credit helped to “clear an over-supply of newly constructed homes during an economic downturn.”  NAR Treasurer Jim Helsel said, “We urge Congress to move quickly to conference and final passage of this tax incentive.  Failure to act quickly could further stall the housing market, hurting many of our members, who are predominantly small businesses owners and self-employed individuals.”  Helsel testified before the House Committee on Small Business and said there are “three critical features for an optimal home buyer tax credit.”  First, the credit should apply to all residential real estate — not solely foreclosed properties.  Next, it should be temporary and only apply for a short period of time.  Finally, it should provide higher income limits than those the House has imposed, particularly for single individuals.
http://www.realtor.org/RMODaily.nsf/pages/News2008060603

Nuns sense it's time

An article from The Denver Post, reports that last year, the Sisters of St. Francis agreed to sell most of their land to Urban Ventures LLC.  The deal depends on a rezoning, which was approved by the Denver Planning Board.  The City Council will make a final determination in August.  Roughly 18 acres of the 25-acre parcel, extending northeast from 52nd Avenue and Federal Boulevard, would go to Urban Ventures.  The Sisters of St. Francis would keep most of the remaining land.  The deal's terms include the construction of new, condo-style residences for the six nuns who live onsite.  They will continue to own and operate Marycrest Assisted Living in an existing facility. Also remaining will be a transitional home that houses 19 women and children, operated by the nonprofit Warren Village.  Plans also include the building of 280 residential units, consisting mainly of townhomes and row homes. More than 100 would be rentals, sold to investors who get federal tax credits.  On the west edge of the property along Federal will be approximately 100,000 square feet of retail and office space.
http://www.denverpost.com/economy/ci_9508140

Foreclosures Cost Lenders, Homeowners, the Community, and You Big Bucks

Earlier this month a reader, Pamela Norvell, wrote a suggestion for lessening the foreclosure crisis. She suggested a freeze and/or a rollback of interest rates to their original levels. In making her suggesting Ms. Norvell wondered what it was causing lenders to foreclose on properties rather than do a workout or a restructure. Made us curious too.

The cost of a foreclosure, it turns out, is pretty staggering and we wonder why lenders and the investors they represent aren't jumping at a solution, any solution, that would allow them to avoid going to foreclosure whenever possible.

According the Joint Economic Committee of Congress, the average foreclosure costs $77,935 while preventing a foreclosure runs $3,300.

The cost of preventing a foreclosure is not easily categorized. We assume that it includes the staff costs of talking to the borrower, collecting financial documents (a task we have noted seems unreasonably difficult for the borrower) reviewing the documents, ordering and reviewing the appraisal, the cost of that appraisal (more likely to be a less expensive brokers price opinion or BPO) and the preparation of a justification to decision makers for any workout plan.

We have seen figures from non-profits that the cost of averting a foreclosure through the use of credit counseling from a non-profit agency approved by the Department of Housing and Urban Development can range from a bit under $1,000 to $14,000 and we don't quite know what to do with that large and disparate range. We do know that counseling programs vary greatly and we assume that those on the high side include programs that provide emergency funds to homeowners to bring loans current while those on the low side are primarily advising and educating their clients.

But the $77,934 cost to foreclosure figure seems fairly easy to document and, compared to others that are widely bandied about - from $58,000 to 30 percent of the pre-foreclosure value of the house - seems reasonable.

First of all, the cost does not accrue totally to the lender. The homeowner has a typical loss of $7,200 which includes loss of equity in the property, moving expenses, and perhaps some legal fees.

Those neighbors living in close proximity to the foreclosed house suffer $1,508 in losses from the decrease in the value of their own home as the neighborhood begins to deteriorate.

The local government loses $19,227 through diminished taxes and fees and a shrinking tax base as home prices decrease. This is a hard number to justify. First of all, only a portion of the declining tax base is due to foreclosures. A big chunk of it is based on falling prices community wide. And we'll bet that even as we talk about it local governments are busy adjusting assessments and mill-levies to keep total revenues close to pre-housing crisis levels. This means that the neighbor's share of the costs should be higher as they absorb increased tax levels.

Also, while the cities and towns are permanently losing some income from fees such as trash pick-up and water and sewer charges, if and when the house is sold they will collect back property taxes or, if they remain unpaid, they will become the owners of the property through tax title. (That opens a whole new area of concern, but one for discussion on a different day.)

That leaves us with total costs of $50,000 for the lender under the numbers produced by the Joint Economic Committee of Congress. The Committee does not break out these figures but a new study from Standard & Poor's (S&P) does. While there is not a total match between the two sets of data, they are close enough.

The Committee includes the following in its list of pre-and post-foreclosure expenses:

Loss on property/loan
Property maintenance
Appraisal
Legal fees
Lost revenue
Insurance
Marketing
Clean-up

And S&P breaks them down as follows:

The largest component of the $50,000 is cash loss on the property. S&P pegs this number at $40,000 for a typical loan of $210,000. Investors who buy short sales tell us that the big lenders are unwilling to sell property or take payoffs for more than a 15 to 20 percent discount so these numbers are closely in sync. S&P however includes only the actual decline in property values in that 19 percent loss figure.

S&P assigns a staggering 26 percent of the loan amount for the costs of foreclosure. This category wraps up the remainder of the list above and include paying property taxes (3 percent, although many ignore this obligation, hoping to pass accrued taxes on to the eventual buyer), maintaining hazard insurance, legal fees (1 percent), an appraisal (although most lenders are choosing the far less expensive alternative of a brokers price opinion or windshield appraisal,) lost revenue (an estimated 13.6 percent of the loan amount) 6 percent marketing fees (broker's commission) and 3 percent spent on home maintenance.

There is a figure that is usually not taken into account - cash reserves. Bank regulations require that lenders put aside a percentage of their capital to cover potential losses. That amount, whether $100,000 or $500,000 is that much less that the bank has to loan to others and means more lost revenue.

It is obvious that no one is a winner in the foreclosure game. But we wonder if lenders and their real estate agents are not exacerbating the situation for all involved through their property management and marketing policies. A look at that later in the week.

Source: Mortgage News Daily http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/622008_Foreclosure_Costs.asp

 

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