Jude's Real Estate Rumblings

head_left_image

Cashing In on Real Estate, It's Still Possible

An article from the Wall Street Journal Online, reports that despite the current economic downturn, there are some alternative real-estate related opportunities that are holding up.  Rural land is becoming more valuable due to rising food costs, demand for corn-based ethanol and a growing desire by urbanites for a place in the country.  According to land consultant Curtis Seltzer, asking prices for rural land "in most places seem to be holding their own, and are trending up in certain markets."  Another alternative that is increasing in popularity is fractional real estate.  Fractional real estate, where an owner buys a deeded share of a residence, is one way for people who don't want to acquire and maintain a second home to still have that vacation getaway.  NorthCourse, a real estate advisory firm based in Parsippany, N.J., found that fractional real estate sales reached $1.98 billion in 2007, a 20% increase over the year before.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121700559432885153.html?mod=RealEstateMain_1


City back in the zone

An article from the Denver Business Journal, reports that Denver’s planning department is writing the first major update to the city’s zoning code in more than 50 years.  According to the Zoning Code Task Force, a draft of the code is expected this fall, and the final version is expected to go into effect in 2009.  Peter Park, manager of the City and County of Denver planning officials, hopes the new form- and context-based code will make zoning in Denver easier and more flexible, and maintain the character of the city’s diverse urban neighborhoods.  What a building looks like, instead of how it is used, and how a building fits with the neighborhood around it, are 2 of the major components of the new zoning provisions.  Chris Crosby, executive vice president at The Nichols Partnership Inc. development firm of Denver and board member of the Cherry Creek North Business Improvement District said, “I really do feel the planning department has been listening to the development community. … I deal a lot with zoning especially in Cherry Creek North.  Our current zoning there is very prescriptive, and it’s important to allow for more flexibility in the future.”
http://www.bizjournals.com/denver/stories/2008/07/28/story1.html?b=1217217600^1673815


Daily Rate Lock Advisory

 
 



Monday's bond market has opened in positive territory following early stock weakness. The stock markets are showing losses with the Dow down 68 points and the Nasdaq down 7 points. The bond market is currently up 16/32, which should improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

There is no relevant news scheduled for release today, but there are several important reports due this week that are likely to affect mortgage pricing. The first piece of news comes late tomorrow morning when the Conference Board posts their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for July. This index measures consumer sentiment, giving us an idea of consumer willingness to spend. This is important because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. If the CCI reading is weaker than expected, we may see bond prices rise and mortgage rates drop tomorrow. Current forecasts are calling for a reading of 50.0, which would be a lightly lower readin g than June's reading.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release Wednesday that is relevant to mortgage rates. However, there are two on the schedule for Thursday. The first is the quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is considered to be the best indicator of economic growth. It is the sum of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and usually has a great deal of influence on the financial markets. Current forecasts are estimating a 1.8% pace. A larger increase will probably hurt bond prices, leading to higher mortgage rates. But a smaller increase would likely fuel a bond market rally.

The second report of the day is the 2nd Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI) that measures employers' costs for wages and benefits. It is considered to be an important measurement of wage inflation and can have a pretty big impact on the bond market and mortgage rates. If it shows a rapid increase, raising inflation concerns, the bond market may drop and mortgage rates rise. It is expected to reveal an increase of 0.7%.

Overall, it likely will be a fairly active week in the mortgage market. With several important economic reports on tap, we will likely see noticeable movement in mortgage rates more than one day. The most important day of the week is Friday with the Employment and ISM reports being released, but Thursday's GDP release is highly important to the markets and could heavily influence mortgage pricing also.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2008

 

www.judesandvall.com

www.judesandvallloans.com

Daily Rate Lock Advisory

 
 


Thursday's bond market has opened in positive territory following sizable stock losses and weaker than expected economic news. The Dow is down 110 points and the Nasdaq has lost 16 points. The bond market is currently up 12/32, which should improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .250 - .375 of a discount point.

Neither of today's economic releases ere considered to be high importance to the markets unfortunately, or we may have seen more of an improvement to mortgage rates. The National Association of Realtors said that home resales in the U.S. fell 2.6% last month. This was a larger drop than was forecasted. In addition, the Labor Department reported that 406,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was a much larger increase than was expected and again crosses the important 400,000 benchmark.

Yesterday afternoon's Beige Book release showed that economic activity slowed in most regions and that infla tion continued to rise. The slowing economic activity is good news for bonds, but the inflationary pressures are a threat to bonds and could drive prices lower and mortgage rates higher if they continue to rise. Overall, it didn't reveal any significant surprises.

The results of today's 5-year Treasury Note auction will be posted at 1:00 PM ET. If the auction was met with a strong demand from investors, bond prices may rise during afternoon trading and could lead to lower mortgage rates. However, if the sale was met with a poor demand, we could see bond prices fall and mortgage rates rise revise higher.

Tomorrow morning brings us the release of two of the week's most important reports. The first will come from the Commerce Department when they will post June's Durable Goods Orders at 8:30 AM ET. Current forecasts are currently calling for a decline of 0.3% after showing little change in new orders during May. This data gives us an indication of manu facturing sector strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories for big-ticket items. These are products that are expected to last at least three years. A stronger than expected number may lead to higher mortgage rates tomorrow morning. If it reveals a larger than expected drop, mortgage rates should improve tomorrow.

Also being released tomorrow is the final revision to July's University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment. Unless we see a drastic revision to the preliminary estimate of 56.6, I think the markets will probably shrug this news off.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot b e guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2008

Realtors Push Back Against Negative News Spin

An article from RealtyTimes.com, reports that national, state, and local Realtor® associations are taking organized and active steps to provide some balance to the news and to correct and/or counteract some of the negative spin that goes beyond straightforward reporting.  The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) introduced the "Surround Sound" campaign earlier this year.  The purpose of the campaign is to counteract the barrage of negative messages with an effort to "surround consumers with messages about the opportunities currently available to them in today's housing markets."  According to the NAR, the campaign reaches out to state and local associations, providing them with materials and showing them ways in which they can both reach the public and how they can best interact with media representatives.
http://realtytimes.com/rtpages/20080723_pushback.htm


Daily Rate Lock Advisory

 

 



Wednesday's bond market has opened in negative territory since there is no relevant economic data to offset early stock gains. The stock markets are in positive territory with the Dow up 24 points and the Nasdaq up 18 points. The bond market is currently down 13/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release this morning, however, the Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book report this afternoon. This report is named simply after the color of its cover, but it is considered to be important to the Fed when determining monetary policy during their FOMC meetings. It details economic activity and conditions by region throughout the U.S. With Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony last week, I don't think we will see any significant surprises in this report, and therefore will likely not cause much movement in mortgage rates later today.
There are two housing sector related releases scheduled for this week with the first coming tomorrow morning. Neither will likely have much of an impact on the bond market or mortgage rates. June's Existing Home Sales will be posted tomorrow morning and is expected to show a decline in sales.

We also have a 5-year Treasury Note auction Thursday that may influence bond trading but will also give us an indication of investor appetite for bonds. If it is met with a strong demand from investors, bond prices may rise during afternoon trading. However, if the sale was met with a poor demand, we could see bond prices fall and mortgage rates rise late tomorrow.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from no w... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2008
www.judesandvall.comwww.judesandvallloans.com

Daily Rate Lock Advisory

 
 


Tuesday's bond market has opened in negative territory as investors remain concerned about inflation sensitive securities. The stock markets are mixed with the Dow up 34 points and the Nasdaq down 4 points. The bond market is currently down 13/32, but due to strength in bonds late yesterday we will likely see little change in this morning's mortgage rates.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release today or tomorrow morning. This will leave the bond market and mortgage rates to be influenced by stock and oil prices. This could further pressure bonds in my opinion, so please proceed cautiously if still floating an interest rate. I would not be surprised to see an upward revision to mortgage pricing later today if bonds remain near current levels.

The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book report tomorrow afternoon. This report is named simply after the color of its cover, but it is considered to be important to the Fed when de termining monetary policy during their FOMC meetings. It details economic activity and conditions by region throughout the U.S. With Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony last week, I don't think we will see any significant surprises in this report, and therefore will likely not cause much movement in mortgage rates tomorrow afternoon.

There are two housing sector related releases scheduled for Thursday and Friday, but I don't think they will have much of an impact on the bond market or mortgage rates. June's Existing Home Sales will be posted Thursday while New Home Sales will be released Friday. I would expect that other reports or factors will drive bond trading and mortgage pricing much more than these will.

We also have a 5-year Treasury Note auction Thursday that may influence bond trading but will also give us an indication of investor appetite for bonds. Generally speaking, despite the lack of a data-packed calendar, I would still maintain con stant contact with your mortgage professional.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2008

Investors With Cash Are Kings in Today's Market



Daily Real Estate News  |  July 18, 2008
Investors With Cash Are Kings in Today's Market

Some are calling this the best market for investors since real estate tanked in the early 1980s.

Investors, alone and in groups, are negotiating volume deals as they purchase whole subdivisions and bundles of 10 to 50 defaulted loans for pennies on the dollar.

"What we're seeing today dwarfs [the 1980s] by five or 10 times," says Bob Leonetti, president of SMI Funding, an Austin, Texas, company that originates and acquires private and conventional mortgages. "There are huge opportunities for investors."

"People who have cash positions now are going to do very well," says Central Florida real estate practitioner Mike Norvell of Developers Capital Realty in Leesburg, Fla. "It's just crazy the prices you can buy for right now for cash."

Source: Investor’s Business Daily, Kathleen Doler (07/07/08)

www.judesandvall.com

www.judesandvallloans.com

Gates project goes slower

Developer splits; first buildings delayed to 2011

Thanks to the sluggish economy, you won't be seeing any new buildings at the $1 billion Gates Rubber redevelopment until 2011, a year later than planned.

In February, the Rocky Mountain News reported that the developer, an entity created by Chicago-based Joseph Freed, had split from the 50-acre project, which is owned and being cleaned up for contaminants by Cherokee Denver.

At that time, Cherokee President Ferd Belz said he was open to having the Joseph Freed group, called Santa Fe Denver 125 LLC, possibly play a smaller role at the Gates site, called Metropolitan Gardens.

But no more. "We have pretty much agreed to go our separate ways," Belz said.

Since the two groups have split, architects and general contractors are still owed $2.2 million, according to court records examined Monday. According to mechanic lien filings in U.S. District Court, among the prominent groups that have not been paid are PCL Construction and 4240 Architecture, headed by Denver architect Peter Dominick.

Mechanic liens are similar to involuntary mortgages slapped on property for unpaid bills. The liens may be foreclosed on to pay the amount owed.

4240 is owed $529,343 and PCL $299,650, according to documents. In addition, Design Workshop is owed $174,015, according to court documents.

Court documents say that Santa Fe Denver 125 contracted for more than $6 million in work, and has paid more than $4 million to subcontractors. It says Cherokee is responsible for half of the roughly $6.2 million. Cherokee's attorneys responded that is has "no duty" to Santa Fe Denver and said its claims are "frivolous, groundless and lack substantial justification."

The only announced retail tenant for the Gates project so far is Robert Redford's Sundance Cinema, and even that is in doubt.

"Technically, that LOI (letter of intent) was with Freed, and Freed is no longer here, so technically we no longer have a contract with Sundance," said Belz on Monday.

But he said he met recently with Sundance officials at the International Council of Shopping Centers in Las Vegas and he said Sundance is still open to coming to Metropolitan Gardens.

"They said they still like the site and to contact them when we're ready," Belz said.

Initially, Freed "was shooting" to have the first development open by the fall of 2010. Now it is likely to be the spring of 2011 before anything is built, Belz said. "We're looking at the next phase to be smaller, tighter and more office and less residential than Freed was planning."

Several retailers he met at ICSC said that in today's economic environment, they would not be ready to move forward until 2011, Belz said.

Former developer Freed planned a lot of residential, including condominiums, Belz said. Separately, Belz sold five acres to Trammell Crow Residential, which is building a luxury apartment complex on the south side of the property.

"Some people say we no longer even have a condo market," Belz said. "Two years ago, people wanted big projects. But now, there is no capital available to fund big, massive projects."

Belz said that while the starts of the building has "slipped a little," the project is not at a standstill. Cherokee still needs to clean pollution on the east side and has yet to start what could be a long process with the city of Denver on demolition of buildings.

"We don't even know yet if we're going to demolish all of the buildings," Belz said. "We would like to try to save the facades of some of them."

And Belz noted that the redevelopment of Gates has always been envisioned as a 10-year-plus project. Delays and setbacks are to be expected during various real estate and economic cycles.

"Because we're a little bit behind now doesn't mean that the whole thing won't be completed around the 10-year time frame," Belz said.

rebchookj@RockyMountainNews.com or 303-954-5207

Morgage Tip

Many buyers need to raise their credit score to qualify for a loan these days.  Every credit report is different, but one of the main things that most people can do to raise their score is to pay down the balances on their revolving accounts (credit cards).  If you owe more than 70% of the available balance on a credit card, that counts against you the most.  If you owe between 50% and 70%, that counts against you a little bit less.  Between 30% and 50% doesn't hurt your score very much at all.  Below 30% will give you the best score. 
 
Very often, paying down the balance on a credit card from more than 50% to less than 50% can have a dramatic effect on the score.